Western Weekly Recap – Market Summary: Wheat & Canola

WHEAT

Wheat markets faced sharp declines last week, with March spring wheat futures dropping over 17 cents to close at 577’6. A strong U.S. dollar continues to pressure U.S. wheat competitiveness in global markets, while Canadian wheat remains in demand thanks to strong elevator basis levels and a weaker Canadian dollar.

Highlights:

• U.S. weekly wheat export sales hit a marketing year low of 140,600 MT, far below trade expectations.
• U.S. winter wheat acres in drought fell to 25%, the lowest since July 2024.
• Snow cover in key areas is expected to protect winter wheat crops from forecasted cold temperatures.
• Friday’s USDA report will include updates on crop production, stocks, and the first glimpse of 2025 winter wheat acreage, expected to show a reduction of 1-1.5 million acres from last year.

CANOLA

Canola futures edged higher last week, closing at $624/MT for March contracts, but the market remains weighed down by uncertainties around Chinese and U.S. trade policies and the implementation of the U.S. 45Z biofuel credit.

Highlights:

• StatsCan reported November canola crush at 1.02 MMT, up 12% year-over-year.
• U.S. renewable diesel consumption hit record levels in 2024, with biodiesel demand expected to surpass 5 billion gallons for the first time.
• Brazil’s soybean production estimates increased, driven by favorable weather, while Argentina faces drought concerns.
• India’s December palm oil imports hit a 9-month low as refiners shifted to discounted soyoil.