Western Weekly Recap – Market Summary: Canola, Barley & Corn and Peas

CANOLA

Canola futures rose $17.60/MT last week, closing at $641.60/MT on the March contract. A strong performance in soybean oil (+14% for the week) contributed to gains across the oilseed complex. The USDA report surprised markets by cutting U.S. soybean yields and production, reducing carryout to 380 mbu, significantly down from previous estimates. Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 3.5 MMT, while South American weather forecasts show chances of rain in drier areas.

Canadian Grain Commission data revealed robust canola exports at 4.72 MMT, nearly doubling last year’s figure, with domestic crush reaching 5 MMT. However, U.S. export sales hit a marketing-year low, falling well below estimates

BARLEY & CORN

Corn futures climbed 19 cents last week following the USDA report that reduced U.S. corn yields and production, bringing the carryout down to 1.54 bbu. Global corn ending stocks were also cut by 3.1 MMT. Despite lower U.S. exports, ethanol exports hit a record 1.72 billion gallons for 2024, with Canada being the largest buyer.

The Canadian dollar’s weakness combined with stronger corn futures has increased the cost of importing U.S. corn into Canada. Looking ahead, U.S. clean fuel tax credit regulations could impact ethanol producers’ access to subsidies for sustainable aviation fuel.

PEAS

Canadian pea carryouts are projected to remain steady at 300kMT. While early-season exports were strong, November volumes aligned with historical averages. India extended its zero-tariff policy for yellow peas until February 28, but bids in Canada remain flat as Indian buyers hold ample stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese imports have declined, with peas priced out of the feed market.