P&H Western Weekly Recap: February 10
February 10, 2025
Grain Market Update: Wheat, Oilseeds, Corn & More
The grain markets saw significant movement this past week, with key developments in wheat, oilseeds, and corn. Here’s a summary of what’s happening across the global markets.
Wheat Markets on the Move
Spring wheat futures climbed again last week, up nearly 13 cents to close at 627’6. The Canadian dollar experienced volatility, dipping as low as 67.6 cents USD before rebounding to just under 70 cents USD.
Funds significantly reduced their short positions in wheat futures, with Minneapolis futures shorts cut by 8,158 contracts and Chicago SRW by 24,361 contracts. This follows a period of extreme divergence between wheat and corn positions.
Global production estimates for Australia’s wheat crop have risen, now pegged at 32-35.5 MMT, exceeding USDA and ABARES projections due to better-than-expected yields in Western Australia. However, China has delayed or redirected 600,000 MT of wheat imports, citing ample domestic supply.
Meanwhile, U.S. wheat export sales totaled 438 kMT, in line with expectations but still trailing the pace needed to meet USDA’s 23 MMT forecast. The EU’s soft wheat exports also continue to lag, running 37% behind last year’s pace.
Oilseeds: Canola and Soybeans
Canola futures experienced volatility but rebounded nearly $29/MT from Monday’s low after trade tensions eased between the U.S. and Canada. Funds cut their short positions in canola futures by 27,194 contracts, bringing their net short to just -7,953 contracts—the least short since September 2023.
Canadian canola exports to China reached a record pace, totaling 2.8 MMT, while domestic stocks declined 19.2% year-over-year to 11.4 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentina received much-needed rain, stabilizing soybean production estimates, while Brazil’s soybean crop remains projected above 170 MMT by multiple analysts.
Corn and Barley Markets
Corn futures gained 11 cents last week, closing at 487’4, continuing their upward trend over the past two months. U.S. corn export sales remain strong, hitting 1.48 MMT last week, keeping total commitments ahead of the five-year average pace.
Argentina’s corn crop ratings dipped, with good/excellent conditions dropping to 25%, while Brazil’s second crop planting faces delays. U.S. ethanol demand for corn remained steady, with December usage reaching 473.2mbu.
Peas and Pulses
India has launched a six-year initiative to boost domestic pulse production, aiming to reduce import reliance. Weather forecasts show normal to slightly above-average temperatures in key growing regions.
Final Thoughts
Market volatility continues, with fund activity, global production estimates, and trade dynamics shaping price trends. Keep an eye on weather patterns and policy shifts for further market direction.