P&H Western Weekly Recap: May 6
May 6, 2025
Grain Market Update
Seeding
Last week, MB released the first provincial crop report of the season, showing planting progress slightly ahead of last year and the 5-year average at 3% complete. SK and AB crop reports will start this week.
Parts of Southern AB are approaching the 50% complete level, while most areas are now underway. The northern half of SK will be in full swing this week with the southwest region at 40% complete and the southeast region at about 20% complete.
Wheat
Spring wheat futures rose last week, up 4 cents on the July contract and closing at 611’0.
Winter wheat areas in the Southern Plains could see some more rain over the next 7 days, further easing any drought concerns. There were ideas that too much rain across US winter wheat growing areas – particularly in OK – could fuel some quality concerns, but according to US Drought Monitor data from April 29, only 23% of US winter wheat and 37% of spring wheat were affected by drought (down from 33% and 49% respectively last week).
Fresh contract lows were made in Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures, while the Minneapolis July contract has held above its contract low of $5.88’6 thus far. US wheat is competitive into several world markets with prices at these lower levels and some buyers took notice last week.
Oilseeds
Canola futures were up over $8/MT from Monday’s open on the July contract and closed the week out at $707.80/MT. Futures tested resistance on Friday, moving as high $709.80; resistance on the July contract sits around the $710 level.
Soybean futures were flat on the week, closing out at 1058’0 on the July while bean oil was slightly lower. The bean oil market maintains support above the ¢49/lb level as they await a biofuel announcement from the EPA.
There are some analysts out there that feel canola is still undervalued relative to the strong demand and limited supplies, while others feel that there is more canola out there than the numbers (Statistics Canada and others) may suggest.
Ukraine, the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, is set to increase its sunflower sowing area by 5% in 2025 to around 12.6mln ac million acres. Last year, sunflower seed harvest fell 13% due to poor weather, pushing prices to record high levels; Ukraine could increase its sunseed harvest by 14% to 15.2 MMT in 2025.
Barley / Corn
Corn futures dropped last week, down nearly 15 cents on the July contract and closed at 469’0. Feed grain prices on the Canadian Prairies may not change a whole lot in the coming weeks, according to Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge.
“It’s pretty much ‘steady as she goes’ now until something changes…either a lot of producer offers or the weather,” they said, noting demand otherwise won’t increase until October.
Pastures have started to turn green, which means cattle producers are needing less feed. Producers also have less cattle, as they’re not replacing them in sufficient enough numbers due to the risk/uncertainty in the market.
Last week, US corn planting progress came in at 24% complete compared to 25% last year and the 5-year avg of 22%. US corn remains the world’s cheapest into Asia through June and potentially into July before Brazilian Safrinha corn prices itself into Asian demand. US export sales on corn were strong, coming in within pre-report estimates (700kk-1.5MMT) and totaling 1.01MMT.
Peas
Some analysts believe yellow pea acres will decline this year though lower acres should weigh too heavily on supplies as tariffs weigh on demand from China. Even if India were to keep pea imports tariffs a 0% after May 31, they expect demand to remain soft.
Chinese pea imports totaled 201kMT in March (highest since November 2024), with over half of that volume coming from Canada while Russia supplied 84k. Pea inventories at Chinese port warehouses are the lowest they’ve been since October 2023.
Indian trade data is delayed, but January numbers showed a slip in demand down to 179kMT w/ 169kMT coming from Canada. Quality concerns out of Russia have weighed on their exports to India.