While farmers finalize their crop plans, P&H is there to provide support. We have agronomists working directly with farmers at each of our locations and experts watching the global and local market trends that could affect your plans on the farm. We spoke with Kyle Hope, Regional Procurement Manager, and Tyler Freeman, Head of Market Analysis, about the global grain and fertilizer markets and their impact on farmers planning to sell grain and purchase crop inputs ahead of the 2026 growing season.

Navigating the grain markets

The grain markets are unpredictable and prone to price fluctuations. Because of this, farmers are reaching out to us to make shorter-term plans to sell their grain. The global market is well supplied, so rallies tend to be quick. But this doesn’t mean you can’t plan ahead.

Kyle advises farmers to be proactive and make grain marketing plans at least a couple of months in advance. Set target prices for your grain purchasing orders (GPOs) so you can sell your grain in the event the markets turn bullish. Without a plan, you may get caught making a panic sale when you need to free up cash flow and miss out on good pricing in the process.

P&H Central is a great tool for your grain marketing plan. You can set your GPO targets, watch your favourite commodities, and adjust prices at any time so you can move when the market conditions change in your favour.

How the global fertilizer market is affecting decision making

The fertilizer market may not be moving as quickly as the grain market, but global events are having just as much of an impact. Tyler noted that in early December, fertilizer prices started to trend lower as buyers were not actively engaging in the market. Sellers started to drop prices in response and right before Christmas, India announced a tender in urea, which increased prices again.

The 2026 global fertilizer market remains volatile due to geopolitical events, just as it was in both 2025 and 2024. Tariffs and the renegotiation of CUSMA have and will continue to impact fertilizer pricing for the foreseeable future. China’s extension of the export ban on phosphate fertilizers—namely di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and nitrogen-phosphorus (NP)—until August 2026 is expected to leave to higher phosphate prices. Phosphate supply will be constrained for a longer period than expected.

The political uncertainty in Venezuela, Iran, Israel, and Russia (who are all major exporters of oil, gas, and nitrogen) will also affect fertilizer and could make nitrogen prices jump overnight. We saw a big run up of urea in January 2026, which was most likely caused by the events in Iran.

The closer we get to #Grow26 in the northern hemisphere, the higher fertilizer prices may start to trend. North American farmers need to make timely decisions on fertilizer leading up to the spring deadline.

You might be asking yourself some questions about fertilizer, such as:

• Do I buy fertilizer now or wait and buy it later?
• Do I use less?
• If I choose to sit back and hold off on buying, are other farmers going to do the same thing?
• Will waiting to buy allow supply to increase and prices to fall?

The delays in decision-making (and therefore, demand) also affect supply. Your local P&H understands the impacts of these decisions and can help you navigate your questions and concerns.

Farmers who delay purchasing fertilizer risk paying higher prices, not necessarily because of lack of supply in general, but lack of supply in the right place. Phosphate fertilizers are not produced in Canada and instead are imported from the U.S. or elsewhere, like Morocco. Longer supply chains make it more difficult to meet a surge in demand in the spring. Low in-market stock and high demand will make the remaining fertilizer more expensive.

The biggest risk is not having fertilizer when you’re ready to seed. We know you can’t afford to lose a day or two of seeding because of even a short-term fertilizer supply issue. While the most optimal prices for fertilizer fill are typically during the summer (2025 being an outlier due to global events), the next best time is the soonest you can do so before planting. You should have your fertilizer tonnes on-farm—or at a minimum, have firm purchases in place—before then.

Plan your season with P&H

At P&H, we know that crop planning includes a sometimes intense combination of watching the grain market, understanding fertilizer supply and demand, and considering how they all impact the choices you make on the farm.

As a full-service grain handler and crop inputs supplier, we’re proud to b a trusted partner of Canadian farmers. Guidance from in-house experts like Kyle Hope and Tyler Freeman bolster our ability to help you plan for success. Through each of our locations, we provide well-informed crop planning services; from local agronomic expertise and budgeting advice to crop nutrient management and grain marketing.

Create you grain marketing plan, book your crop planning sessions, and secure your fertilizer supply today—all at your local P&H.

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