P&H Western Weekly Recap: April 15
April 15, 2025
Grain Market Update: Wheat, Oilseeds, & More
Wheat Updates
Spring wheat futures rose last week, up over 31 cents on the May contract at 615’0. A sharp low for the US dollar supported US commodity futures, and the Canadian dollar went up by nearly 2 cents, putting pressure on Canadian cash wheat prices.
Thursday’s USDA report showed a higher-than-expected increase to US wheat carry-outs – 819mbu in March to 846mbu (estimated at 825 mbu). US imports increased from 140mb to 150 mb in April, with the USDA trimmed exports by 15mb. Global ending stocks for 2024/25 saw a modest increase from 206.1MMT to 260.7MMT.
US National winter wheat condition ratings came in at 48% good/excellent, down from 55% in the Fall and 56% at this time last year. Updated weekly conditions will out after the close today.
US Drought Monitor data from Apr 8 showed 32% of Winter wheat production area affected by drought, a drop of 5% from last week but above last year’s 15%. The spring wheat area in drought rose 4% to 43%, nearly double the 22% from last year; Spring wheat was 3% planted.
Oilseeds Updates
Canola futures rose sharply again last week, up over $38 on the May contract and closing out at $660.70/MT. Canola futures have now rebounded nearly $105/MT from the lows back in mid-March, following China’s 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal/oil exports. Expected tight canola stocks, strong export and crush demand, and clarity that the US will stick with its commitments under the USMCA trade deal (for now), continue to support canola futures.
Soybean futures were up over 70 cents last week at 1042’6 on the May contract, despite the looming trade war between the US and China.
Smaller US acres, the possibility of bigger biofuel mandates for 2026, and the lower USD supported beans last week.
With a 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal, Chinese buyers are turning to India, buying 52,000MT of rapeseed meal over the past 3 weeks – nearly 4x the amount they bought from India through all of 2024. China’s rapeseed meal imports in 2024 included 2MMT from Canada, 504kMT from the UAE, and 135kMT from Russia. Tonnage from Canada may be a hard gap for them to fill.
Barley, Corn, & Pea Updates
Corn futures rose last week, up over 34 cents on the May contract and closing at 490’2. Cuts to US inventories as well as a lower US dollar supported futures.
The USDA reduced 2024/25 US corn ending stocks, which is more than expected from 1.54mbu down to 1.465mbu (est. 1.51mbu). Exports saw an increase of 100mbu. World carry-outs were reduced from 288.8MMT down to 287.7MMT.
Brazilian government agency CONAB raised their 2024/25 corn production estimate from 122.8MMT to 124.7MMT. Meanwhile, the USDA and South American crop consultant, Dr. Cordonnier, held their estimates at 126MMT and 122MMT respectively.
According to Argentina’s Buenos Aires Exchange (BAGE), the Argentine corn harvest was 23.1% complete as of last week, in line with last year’s pace. BAGE held their estimate at 49MMT of production while the Rosario Grains Exchange increased their estimate from 44.5MMT to 48.5MMT.
The USDA also held their estimate in last week’s report at 50MMT while Dr. Cordonnier maintained his estimate at 46MMT. US export sales on corn came in at 786kMT, the low end of pre-report estimates (700k-1.3MMT).
Private analysts Strategie Grains raised their 2025/26 EU barley estimate from 50.5MMT to 51.2MMT; they raised corn slightly from 60MMT to 60.1MMT.
No major news in the pea markets, as the job of the pea market will be to find demand with China and India, who are both absent at this time. Reports suggest China should have sufficient supply out until summer months, while current 100% tariff on Canadian yellow peas means China will likely have to import more peas from the Black Sea region. Russia accounted for 46% of China pea imports in 2024, compared to Canada’s 43%.