P&H Western Weekly Recap: April 21
April 21, 2025
Grain Market Update
Wheat
Spring wheat futures were lower last week, down over 9 cents on the July contract and closing at 619’2.
The Canadian dollar rose slightly last week to 72.2 cents US, as softer inflation data elevated the perception that the Bank of Canada (BOC) would cut rates. Markets moved lower on the release of inflation data, but retraced losses when the BOC announced it would hold its key policy rate at 2.75%. The stronger Canadian dollar has put more pressure on wheat basis levels over the past couple of weeks.
Last week, US National winter wheat condition ratings came in at 47% good/excellent (vs 48% last week and 55% last year), ahead of the 5-year average of 45% good/excellent. Kansas ratings came in at 43% good/excellent, down from 51% last week. Spring wheat was 7% planted, in line with the 5-year average. Updated conditions will be out after the close.
Many parts of the Southern Plains (hard red winter wheat country) missed forecasted rains over the weekend, with Oklahoma being the exception. A few systems are on tap for the US this week, with the Southern Plains expected to receive brunt of it.
The USDA released drought monitor data on Thursday, showing that drought conditions were mostly unchanged. 34% of Winter wheat areas and 43% of Spring wheat areas were affected by drought as of April 15.
Oilseeds
Canola futures saw modest gains, up over $8/MT on the July contract and closing the week out at $675.70/MT. On Thursday, canola futures tested the resistance levels at the highs on the May ($680) and July ($687.10) contracts before finishing the day lower.
Canola demand remains strong. As of April 13, canola exports totaled 7.4MMT (vs 4.2MMT last year) and crushers have taken in 8.1MMT (vs 7.6MMT last year).
US Soybean plantings last week came in at 2% complete, in line with the 5-year average. Updates will be out after the close today. NOPA US soybean crush data showed a total of 194.6mbu of soybeans crushed in March, up 9.4% from last month, but down 1% from last year.
The global demand for bean oil remains strong and US bean oil exports are the largest since 2019/2020. Exports in palm oil are mostly flat and global vegetable oil demand is increasing, which has buyers seeking alternatives.
July Canola Futures (RSN25) – Testing key resistance on Thursday before closing lower
Corn
Corn futures fell last week, down over 5 cents on the July contract and closing at 490’2.
US corn planting progress came in at 4% complete compared to 6% last year and the 5-year average of 5%. Updated planting percentages will be out after the close today.
US export sales on corn were strong, coming in at the high end of pre-report estimates (600k-1.8MMT) and totaling 1.56MMT. The US continues to be the most competitive in global export markets but that will shift as South American corn comes to markets.
April is a key month for Brazil’s second corn crop – most areas where the crop is in its reproductive stage received good rains.