Wheat – Spring wheat futures gained nearly 21 cents last week, closing at 615’4. The weaker Canadian dollar, now below 69 cents US, provided some support. Recent wheat rallies were driven by technical short covering and funds shifting positions.

US wheat export sales rebounded to 456kMT, in line with estimates. Argentina’s tax cuts, effective until June 2025, could boost wheat exports, while EU exports remain sluggish, down 34% from last year. Australia’s wheat harvest may exceed estimates by 2MMT, and concerns over winterkill persist due to recent warm weather.

Black Sea Region – Russia’s wheat exports could fall between 41-42MMT, below the USDA’s 46MMT estimate, with SovEcon revising its forecast downward due to slow shipments. Ukraine’s wheat exports stand at 10.7MMT, an 18.5% increase from last year.

Oilseeds – Canola futures remained flat at $638.10/MT. Funds reduced net shorts in canola and increased long positions in soybeans. Argentina’s tax cuts could spur farmers to sell nearly half of their 10MMT soybean stockpile, with January exports up 36% year-over-year. Brazil’s soybean harvest lags, with only 8-9% complete compared to 16% last year. US soybean export sales disappointed at 438kMT, below expectations.

Barley & Corn – Corn futures closed 4.5 cents lower at 482’0, despite strong demand and South American weather concerns. Funds increased their net long position, while US export sales hit 1.36MMT, ahead of pace. Argentina’s corn crop is struggling, with deteriorating conditions, though expected February rains may stabilize crops. Brazil’s second corn crop is 9% planted.

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