Grain market update

Canadian seeding progress & conditions

Manitoba’s crop report on Tuesday showed seeding at 95% complete, up 10% from this time last year and 12% from the 5-year average. Cereals and pulses were complete with canola at 90% and soybeans at 93%. The South-West and Central regions of Manitoba have received 140% of the normal rainfall since May 1st, while the Eastern, Interlake, and North-West regions have seen less than 60% of the normal rainfall. This week’s update should show improving soil moisture from rains over the past week.

Thursday’s Saskatchewan crop report showed seeding at 97% complete, up 3% from last year and 2% from the 5-year average with just a little bit of oats, barley, and canola left to go. Crops with conditions in the good/excellent category showed spring wheat at 64%, durum at 76%, oats at 61%, peas at 75%, and canola at 57%. Last year’s report from May 28 to June 3 didn’t report crop condition ratings. The June 4-10, 2024 ratings were as follows:

• Spring wheat: 87%
• Durum:93%
• Oats: 87%
• Barley: 87%
• Peas: 91%
• Canola: 78%

Alberta’s crop report from Friday showed seeding pretty much wrapped up, except for a small bit of oats, barley, and canola left. Crop condition rating should be out next week; soil moisture was at 14% poor, 44% fair, 35% good, and 7% excellent.

Wheat & oilseeds

Spring wheat futures were higher again this week, up nearly 10 cents on the July contract and closing at 635’2 on further short covering.

Canola futures stayed flat last week, down just $0.30/MT and closing the week out at $710.80/MT on the July contract. After Monday’s steep sell-off, futures were able to recover losses throughout the week.

Soybean futures were higher, up nearly 16 cents and closing at 1057’2 on the July.

Bean oil was up 1.3%, EU rapeseed was up 2.3%, and palm oil was up 1%.

Peas

Don’t expect to see an immediate response from the pea market in response to India extending their 0% tariff on yellow pea imports. India is well-supplied, and warehouses are still full of imported peas currently.

In Agriculture Canada’s latest report, they pegged Canadian pea exports for 25/26 at 1.3MMT. Private Canadian analyst Leftfield Research estimates 1.6MMT of exports (incl. India, assuring tariffs stay in place with China for now).

After last week’s meetings with the Prime Minister and Premiers, Chinese tariffs on Canadian peas, canola oil/meal, and seafood were “a top priority”. On Thursday, Carney and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to “regularize channels of communication” and will “convene the Joint Economic and Trade Commission at an early date to address outstanding issues.”.

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