Grain Market Update

Seeding

Tuesday’s Manitoba crop report shows provincial seeding progress at ~85% complete, which is up 28% from last week, 21% from last year, and 16% above than the 5-year average.

Thursday’s report in Saskatchewan showed seeding at about 88% complete, up 16% from last week, 11% from last year, and 6% above the 5-year average.

Friday’s Alberta report showed seeding at 90% complete—up 18% from last week and 9% above the 5-year average.

Rain over the past 8 days or so brought seasonal precipitation accumulations closer to normal in most areas. Overall, topsoil moisture has shown a slight reduction over the past week due to dry and windy conditions, although 69% is considered to have adequate/surplus moisture.

Provincial soil moisture conditions rated good/excellent were below both the 5- and 10-year average, with the exception of the central region.

Wheat

Spring wheat futures were higher last week, up nearly 20 cents on the July contract and closing at 624’4 as lower-than-expected crop conditions sparked dome short covering.

Spring wheat was 87% planted, which is in-line with last year and up 7% from the 5-year average. Emergence was at 60%, up 2% from last year and 7% from the 5-year average. Spring wheat conditions also came as a surprise with 45% rated good/excellent, down 21% from the 5-year average—the market was expecting a 71% good/excellent.

High domestic prices have encourages farmers to expand acreage with high-yielding seed varieties.

Oilseeds

Canola futures were lower last week, down almost $10/MT and closing the week out at $711.10/MT on the July contract. Soybean futures were as well, down 19 cents and closing at 1041’6 on the July contract. Bean oil dipped and broke a key support level on Friday (the EU rapeseed futures were down, and palm oil futures were slightly higher).

A Statistics Canada report pegged April canola crush at just 919kMT, down 10% from March and nearly 4% below the same month last year; cumulative 2024-25 crush was still running at 5.1% ahead of last year.

Canadian canola crusher are diversifying their customer base when it comes to export sales for canola oil and relying less on US buyers.

Corn

Corn futures were lower last week, down 16 cents on the July contract and closed at 443’4.

The corn crop was rated at 68% good/excellent, 4% below the 5-year average, and 5% below pre-report expectations.

Most feedlots now have the majority of their June/July old crop needs requirements covered with cattle on feed numbers lower. They’re expected to decline until September, and this decline could push feed demand lower.