Western Weekly Recap: Wheat dips, Argentina’s outlook improves, EU cuts soft wheat, and Canada’s canola crush hits record highs.

WHEAT

Spring Wheat Market and Crop Yields: Spring wheat futures dropped over 4 cents last week, with December contracts closing at 599’6. In Saskatchewan, Hard Red Spring yields were reported at 46 bpa, aligning closely with StatCan’s 2024 yield estimate of 46.5 bpa.

U.S. Winter Wheat Condition: The first U.S. winter wheat condition ratings show only 38% in good/excellent condition, significantly lower than last year’s 47% and the five-year average of 44%. Planting updates show 80% completed, slightly below the average pace.

Argentina’s Wheat Harvest Outlook: Argentina’s wheat harvest is progressing at 8%, but near-term rain is still necessary in key areas. The Rosario Grains Exchange projects 2024/25 exports at 13.3 MMT, the second highest on record.

EU Soft Wheat Production Cuts: The EU Commission reduced its soft wheat crop estimate to 112.6 MMT, reflecting a 10% decrease from last year’s 125.2 MMT due to adverse conditions earlier in the season.

BLACK SEA

Russian Wheat Exports: Russia’s wheat export prices remain below the minimum $250/MT target, with SovEcon forecasting prices to stay flat or potentially drop further.

Export Forecast Adjustment: SovEcon reduced Russia’s 24/25 wheat export forecast by 1.7MMT to 45.9MMT due to new Ag Ministry intervention policies.

Ukraine’s Winter Grain Planting: Ukraine’s winter grain planting, primarily winter wheat, is over 90% complete.

Ukraine’s Wheat Export Cap: Ukraine agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2MMT for 24/25, with 48% of this quota already utilized.

CANOLA

Canola Futures and Market Sentiment: Canola futures dropped over $7/MT, closing at $645.90/MT on the January contract. Funds also significantly reduced their net short position in canola futures for the second consecutive week, suggesting shifting market sentiment.

2024 Saskatchewan Yield Estimate: Saskatchewan’s 2024 provincial average yield for canola is projected at 32.7 BPA, 5 BPA lower than recent StatsCan estimates, indicating a tighter supply outlook.

Record-High Canola Crushing: Canada set a record for canola crushing in the first two months of the marketing year, with 1.78 MMT crushed domestically. Agriculture Canada forecasts the 2024-25 crush at 11.5 MMT, continuing strong demand.

BARLEY

Saskatchewan Barley Yield: The final crop report from Saskatchewan estimates provincial barley yield at 63.4 bushels per acre, higher than last year’s 57.4 bpa and above Stats Canada’s estimate of 61 bpa.

US Corn Harvest Progress: The US corn harvest was 81% complete as of last week, significantly ahead of the average pace of 64%.

EU Corn and Barley Production Estimates: The EU’s crop monitor (MARS) lowered the 2024 corn yield estimate to 106.1 BPA (down from last year due to rainfall issues), and the EU Commission reduced its overall corn production estimate to 58 MMT—5.4% lower than last year. The EU’s barley production forecast is higher at 49.8 MMT, up from last year’s 47.2 MMT.

South African Corn Production: South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has put the 2024 corn crop estimate at 12.72 MMT, representing a 23% decrease from last season’s production of 16.43 MMT.

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